During his GRC presentation at ARIS ProcessWorld in Copenhagen last week, Martin Kling announced the new feature Process Risk Simulation to be released in Q1 2010. It will be an enhancement of ARIS Business Simulator, but will especially be helpful within the ARIS Solution for GRC to support process risk simulation.
Currently the ARIS Solution for GRC provides an operational risk management module to identify and document risks (e.g., financial or security risks). The risk assessment workflow supports evaluation of these risks with regard to financial impact and probability. If necessary, appropriate measures to manage risks or to reduce their consequences should they occur are defined. Role-based presentation of the assessment results ensures that both management and risk owners receive the specific information they need.
The new feature Process Risk Simulation offers completely new possibilities to deal with operational risk. Simulation has been intensively used for classic market and credit risk scenarios so far, now it is also available for operational risk along a process chain. Analysis of dependencies between business processes, risks, and controls will be supported.
Several use cases will be possible, from simple modeling of risks to a full-blown approach that includes controls, re-working process branches, and resources. Using the standard modeling conventions of the ARIS Solution for GRC, risk and control objects are incorporated into the process models in question. Then the necessary additional information can be added to define risk occurrence probabilities and damage distribution values, control effectiveness, sample sizes, and damage reduction values. This will be combined with the existing functionalities of ARIS Business Simulator for process times, process cost, resources, shift calendars, etc.
Various statistical methods for defining risk probabilities and damage distributions, as well as control effectiveness, etc. will be available: equal, Gaussian, lognormal, exponential, Erlang, triangular, and gamma distribution.
I look forward to learning more about this new Process Risk Simulation.
Hi,
the distributions in the simulation functionality vary by attribute.
E.g., for the attribute 'amount of damages' the following distributions are available:
- equal
- normal
- log-normal
- exponential
- erlang
- triangular
- truncated normal
- gamma
- weibull
Best regards,
Elke