MAGIC!? - Or: Why ARIS is - again - leader in Gartner´s BPA Magic Quadrant ....

If you take into account continious merges and acquisitions and will take a look to this picture, you can discover, that there is no Webmethods but exists Lombardi, which was acquired by IBM recently. So, it would be logical to place Lombardi to the same position as IBM occupies.

The same time you can't find there Software AG on the Gartner picture. To be logical, we should place ARIS to the position, which occupies it's owner, Software AG. Or, according to Gartner picture, we should place Software AG close to IBM?

I am confused with such approach of comparison.

If you look to, for instance, BMP tools review, for instance, by BPMTrends for the year 2007, you can discover there a zoo of tools and solutions which.... you can hardly find them alive in year 2009 report because of merges.

Please take it as thoughts, nothing more. The wild and murderous mergers on the market could and will reflect how ARIS will be placed in the future. I have my worries about influence of Software AG (unknown on Gartner scale) to the leader on the Gartner scale.

However, it doesn't mean that Gartner report doesn't have the value. Any point of view has it's own value.

Even the wrong one.

Good point Sergei! It is indeed interesting why Lombardi and IBM are both included. But my guess is that the merger was too late to be considered in the quadrant. Gartner starts many months in advance to prepare the quadrant.

I don't think Software AG should be included at this point, because at the moment both companies (SAG and IDS Scheer) are still independent legal entities (at least as far as I understand the merger process). But maybe in the next quadrant we will see a change. In general, I think the position of ARIS will get even stronger, because after the merger we can provide the complete stack from business process analysis down to execution. But we will see how that works out.

Hi Sergei,

personally, I'm also not a big fan of those analyst companies, so I won't argue against the points you mention. In general, it is always very hard to predict the future, no matter if you are an analyst or just an ordinary person. Still, it is their business model and it seems this business is running very well ;-)

But what are your predictions for the future of BPM? Do you think BPM will become something which is used by many more companies? Or will BPM become obsolete by something completely different?

I like you expression " was too late to be considered" in relation of Gartner, which suppose to know the future. If they didn't know that everybody knew, what about the future they try to predict?

By the way, look at where is Tibco on this scale and if you will consider future acquisition of TIBCO (you do not need Gartner experts to know who it will be), Tibco should be placed close to the leaders, such as IBM and ex-IDS Scheer.

we can provide the complete stack from business process analysis down to execution - good point but...it will be in the future and merger, as everybody know from making cocktails, mixes one with another. You can't mix one thing with another and keep it as it was. It means that SAG will influence ARIS and I am not sure that it will be harmonized to the level where everybody will be happy.

By the way, have you did your analysis of what was predicted by Gartner 5 years ago and what had happened now?

Did they predict that product #1 in BP modelling will be... VISIO?

And did they prdict that IDS SCHEER will be forced to make something to compete with VISIO?

BPM was before it got it name and will be after. It is just modern way to look to the old things.

So, in the future will be modern way of looking to the future because we will have processes and will manage them.

What I think about current BPM - it has errosion of common sense, has mixture of terminology (from desire to satisfy everybody with ONE COMPLETE STACK), it's develoment goes in TOP-DOWN direction which helps Oracle, IBM, IDS and now SAG to be happy. The murderous mergers in BPM market for the last 5 years, I think, eliminated grounds for new ideas to appear (look to the speed of reaction of IDS SCHEER and compare it with the rise of Lombardi).

My vision on future of BPM is that it will grow there where knowledge will grow. Currently, take ARIS for instance, before ARIS Express there was huge barrier to get into this business (access to products, knowledge, practices) which was a key for IDS to be competitive. There is another side of the moon, when BPM company mixes competitive profiles, such as being product vendor (which needs partner chain) and ... consultancy company (which wants to do everything by itself).

I have experience working with Autodesk, which has STRONG VENDOR PROFILE. Imagine, if Autodesk, to be competitive, will be providing ENGINEERING SERVICES and compete with it's own partner channel. Will AutoCAD have success it has now? Definetly not. So, the key for BPM product success lies in VENDOR PROFILE. If BPM PRODUCT VENDORS will behave as vendors, building PRODUCT CHANNEL and WILL NOT COMPETE WITH THE CHANNEL - it could change current situation.

As I see now - there are little indicators of that BPM product vendors will become PRODUCT VENDORS and the fate of Lombardi and future fate TIBCO doesn't look good from this point of view.

Interesting point, but why is Microsoft and IBM providing consulting? They are successful being software vendors and consulting companies. My feeling is that your points are just the opinions of a channel partner, aren't they?

The logic behind my oppinion is the following and based upon invention of Adam Smith (labour separation):

1. Vendor produces the product and focuses itself on product and doesn't deal directly with customer;
   
   It is not the case with IDS SCHEER
2. Vendor delivers product via channel partners to the customers (via levels of distributors and dealsers);
   
   It is not the case with IDS SCHEER - deals directly with customers
3. Consultants (dealers) deal directly with customers (and select APPROPRIATE product on the market).
   
   It is not the case with IDS SCHEER - provides consultancy to the customer base with it's appropriate umbrella
4. Vendor should avoid competition with channel on client site.
   
   It is not the case with IDS SCHEER

As for Microsoft - there are different products - boxes or consultacy-related products. Compare number of dealers for boxed and consultancy-related products and you will answer for your question.

The future of BPM relies on tools and knowledge how to use them. Look at VISIO - it became #1 in modeling because of...availability via channel, created by vendor. You should not be Gartner to predict that boxed solution,  supported by channel will be the winner in the future.

ARIS? Web Methods? Open Source? Who knows, there is success of PRODUCTS - VISIO, AUTOCAD (you name it), just folow, and there is no need to invent new successfull bicycle.

PS. By the way, I didn't see BOXED ARIS so far.

About Sergei’s Vendor should avoid competition with channel on client site

 

It’s a real problem with IDS (problem with sales), because there is no normal partnership rules to avoid competition with local partner. Sometimes it is more advantageous for us not propose ARIS to a client, because we know, that will be competition with IDS on the consulting field for this client. And of course we don’t want this competition, because its looks like the battle between boxer (IDS) and ballerina (we).

 

Hi,

I will forward this thread to partner management so that they get aware of this problem! Thanks for pointing out.